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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.72 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model