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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 83

Jacksonville Jaguars 39 – Tennessee Titans 42

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at JAX 6 for -11 yards (sack split by 21-D.Searcy and 97-K.Klug).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -2.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 41, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model