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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 77

New York Jets 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 4-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to NYG 35, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model