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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NYJ
42.9%
NYG
57.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Eli Manning (NYG): +0.129 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 22
–
NYG 25
Projected margin: NYG by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NYJ

Darrelle Revis CB Out Concussion
Dion Bailey S Doubtful Ankle
Marcus Williams CB Doubtful Knee
Calvin Pace LB Questionable Abdomen
Eric Decker WR Probable Knee
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Probable left Thumb
Nick Mangold C Probable Hand
Brandon Marshall WR Probable Toe
Trevor Reilly LB Probable Knee
Buster Skrine CB Probable Shoulder

NYG

Larry Donnell TE Out Neck
Devon Kennard LB Out Hamstring
Brandon Meriweather S Out Knee
Marshall Newhouse T Questionable Back
Weston Richburg C Questionable Ankle
Robert Ayers DE Probable Toe
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Probable Hand
Justin Pugh G Probable Concussion
Nikita Whitlock RB Probable Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 23
–
NYG 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:51 FG NYJ (5:51) 8-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 3 – NYG 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD NYG (15:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 55 yards to NYG 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 17-D.Harris for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – NYG 6
  • Q2 09:02 FG NYG (9:02) 3-J.Brown 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYJ 3 – NYG 10
  • Q2 03:30 TD NYJ (3:30) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 29-B.Powell for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – NYG 10
  • Q2 02:27 TD NYG (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – NYG 16
  • Q2 00:34 FG NYG (:34) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYJ 10 – NYG 20
  • Q4 04:33 FG NYJ (4:33) 8-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 13 – NYG 20
  • Q4 00:32 TD NYJ (:32) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 15-B.Marshall for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 19 – NYG 20
  • Q5 08:50 FG NYJ (8:50) 8-R.Bullock 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 23 – NYG 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:34) 4-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to NYG 35, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:33) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to NYJ 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-28-J.Hosley.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 97%

    (5:51) 8-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 20%

    (3:53) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to NYJ 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (15:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 55 yards to NYG 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 17-D.Harris for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:33) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to NYG 19, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:16) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to NYJ 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-J.Kerley MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 19. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 18 for -1 yards (51-Z.DeOssie). Officially, a punt for 43 yards.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (9:02) 3-J.Brown 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:50) 4-R.Quigley punts 37 yards to NYG 33, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 92%

    (:34) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:16) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to NYG 13, Center-46-T.Purdum. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 29 for 16 yards (58-E.Henderson).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (8:50) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right intended for 82-R.Randle INTERCEPTED by 45-R.Miles at NYJ 3. 45-R.Miles to NYJ 14 for 11 yards (68-B.Hart).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (4:33) 8-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:48) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to NYJ 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 87-E.Decker.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 58%

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle to NYG 21 for 15 yards (21-L.Collins).