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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 59

New York Jets 10 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to NYG 13, Center-46-T.Purdum. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 29 for 16 yards (58-E.Henderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model