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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 6

New York Jets 10 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 8-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 6, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model