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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 6

New York Jets 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 8-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 6, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP