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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 75

New York Jets 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 55 yards to NYG 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 17-D.Harris for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.57 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model