4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 63

New York Jets 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to NYG 19, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.67 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model