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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 21 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 8-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to ATL 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Hester to ATL 35 for no gain. PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.75 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 84, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 42, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP