Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CAR defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- CAR offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- ATL defense: +0.013 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- Cam Newton (CAR): +0.133 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- ATL offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 14
ATL
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 31 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:33 TD CAR (11:33) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Daryl Williams reported as eligible ATL 0 – CAR 6
- Q1 07:01 TD CAR (7:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 19-T.Ginn for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Illegal Contact, declined. ATL 0 – CAR 13
- Q1 00:20 TD CAR (:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CAR 20
- Q2 00:22 TD CAR (:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 84-E.Dickson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. ATL 0 – CAR 27
- Q3 05:50 FG CAR (5:50) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. ATL 0 – CAR 31
- Q3 02:26 TD CAR (2:26) (Shotgun) 43-F.Whittaker right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CAR 37
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 23%
(8:15) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to CAR 7, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(3:45) 5-M.Bosher punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 32%
(11:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 84-R.White to CAR 35 for 12 yards (41-R.Harper). PENALTY on CAR-41-R.Harper, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 35.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 84Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 64%
(8:21) 8-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to ATL 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Hester to ATL 35 for no gain. PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 35.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 14 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(3:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to CAR 19, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EPp(convert) 56%
(14:08) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CAR 4th & 20 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(11:57) 8-B.Nortman punts 65 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Hester to ATL 24 for -1 yards (21-T.Williams).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CAR 4th & 20 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 89%
(5:50) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(12:07) 8-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-54-S.Thompson. PENALTY on ATL-51-P.Wheeler, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 29.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(9:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 84-R.White to CAR 2 for 4 yards (33-T.Boston; 92-D.Edwards).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(8:30) 8-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to ATL 45, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Hester to CAR 44 for 11 yards (20-K.Coleman).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 13 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 49%
(5:10) (Shotgun) 12-S.Renfree sacked at CAR 49 for -9 yards (93-K.Love).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 42 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 44%
(2:44) 3-D.Anderson up the middle to ATL 42 for no gain (97-G.Jarrett; 94-T.Jackson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 62 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 26%
(1:33) (Shotgun) 12-S.Renfree pass deep right intended for 16-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman at CAR 36. 20-K.Coleman to CAR 46 for 10 yards (83-J.Tamme).
See the full breakdown →
