4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 20 at the 90

Carolina Panthers 28 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 8-B.Nortman punts 65 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Hester to ATL 24 for -1 yards (21-T.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -3.32 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.56 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 90, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model