Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 94

Carolina Panthers 38 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(8:30) 8-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to ATL 45, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-D.Hester to CAR 44 for 11 yards (20-K.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.46 EP
53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 94, worth -5.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model