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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 13 at the 40
Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 38
What Actually Happened
(5:10) (Shotgun) 12-S.Renfree sacked at CAR 49 for -9 yards (93-K.Love).
The Three Options
GO
-0.21 EP
What Happened
-
25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.14 EP
- 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.67 EP
KICK
-0.05 EP
Model's Pick
- 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
- 51% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT
-0.30 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
