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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 51

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to CAR 7, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.57 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP