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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 15 at the 43
Buffalo Bills 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 14
What Actually Happened
(1:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.61 EP
-
26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.80 EP
- 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.15 EP
KICK
-0.54 EP
Model's Pick
- 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
- 56% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT
-0.56 EP
What Happened
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
