Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- PHI offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Sam Bradford (PHI) -0.023 vs Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.142 EPA/dropback
- PHI defense: +0.023 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- BUF offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 14
BUF
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:56 TD PHI (9:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 43-D.Sproles right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – PHI 6
- Q1 08:24 TD BUF (8:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – PHI 7
- Q2 10:45 TD PHI (10:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass deep middle to 17-N.Agholor for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – PHI 13
- Q2 06:24 FG BUF (6:24) 2-D.Carpenter 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 10 – PHI 14
- Q2 00:09 FG PHI (:09) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. BUF 10 – PHI 17
- Q3 09:46 FG PHI (9:46) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. BUF 10 – PHI 20
- Q3 05:19 FG BUF (5:19) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 13 – PHI 20
- Q3 00:52 TD BUF (:52) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – PHI 20
- Q4 03:30 FG PHI (3:30) 6-C.Sturgis 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. BUF 20 – PHI 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BUF 4th & 17 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to PHI 34, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 39 for 5 yards (81-M.Easley).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(7:03) 8-D.Jones punts 63 yards to BUF 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 24 for 11 yards (37-J.Watkins).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 53%
(4:36) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to PHI 13, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EPp(convert) 72%
(3:22) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to BUF 22, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen pushed ob at BUF 34 for 12 yards (56-B.Braman).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 36Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 62%
(12:48) 6-C.Schmidt punts 32 yards to PHI 4, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(11:46) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to BUF 38, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 38, RECOVERED by PHI-56-B.Braman at BUF 37. 56-B.Braman to BUF 37 for no gain (36-J.Meeks).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%
(6:24) 2-D.Carpenter 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(4:07) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to BUF 38, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 44%
(1:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%
(9:46) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 88%
(5:19) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(4:11) 8-D.Jones punts 51 yards to BUF 27, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen ran ob at BUF 41 for 14 yards (46-J.Dorenbos). PENALTY on PHI-14-R.Cooper, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 41.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 77Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 55%
(9:31) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to PHI 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at BUF 46 for 28 yards (6-C.Schmidt).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 49%
(8:47) 8-D.Jones punts 32 yards to BUF 9, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(5:36) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to PHI 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 34 for 14 yards (65-G.Sanborn).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 12 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%
(3:30) 6-C.Sturgis 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 14 at the 84 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(2:26) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to PHI 36, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 36 for no gain (81-M.Easley).
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