4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

BUF
50.5%
PHI
49.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BUF: Sam Bradford (PHI) -0.023 vs Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.142 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 23
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

BUF

Nigel Bradham LB Out Ankle
Ron Brooks CB Out Concussion
Stephon Gilmore CB Out Shoulder
Karlos Williams RB Out Shoulder
John Miller G Questionable Ankle
Seantrel Henderson T Probable Illness
Mario Williams DE Probable Hand
Charles Clay TE Probable Knee
Chris Hogan WR Probable Knee

PHI

Kenjon Barner RB Probable Ankle
Sam Bradford QB Probable left Shoulder
Zach Ertz TE Probable Hip
Lane Johnson T Probable Shoulder
Bennie Logan DT Probable Knee
Ryan Mathews RB Probable Concussion
Eric Rowe CB Probable Ankle
Cedric Thornton DE Probable Ankle
Walter Thurmond S Probable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 20
–
PHI 23

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:56 TD PHI (9:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 43-D.Sproles right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 08:24 TD BUF (8:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – PHI 7
  • Q2 10:45 TD PHI (10:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass deep middle to 17-N.Agholor for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – PHI 13
  • Q2 06:24 FG BUF (6:24) 2-D.Carpenter 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 10 – PHI 14
  • Q2 00:09 FG PHI (:09) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. BUF 10 – PHI 17
  • Q3 09:46 FG PHI (9:46) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. BUF 10 – PHI 20
  • Q3 05:19 FG BUF (5:19) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 13 – PHI 20
  • Q3 00:52 TD BUF (:52) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – PHI 20
  • Q4 03:30 FG PHI (3:30) 6-C.Sturgis 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. BUF 20 – PHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 17 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to PHI 34, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 39 for 5 yards (81-M.Easley).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:03) 8-D.Jones punts 63 yards to BUF 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 24 for 11 yards (37-J.Watkins).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:36) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to PHI 13, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:22) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to BUF 22, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen pushed ob at BUF 34 for 12 yards (56-B.Braman).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 62%

    (12:48) 6-C.Schmidt punts 32 yards to PHI 4, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (11:46) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to BUF 38, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 38, RECOVERED by PHI-56-B.Braman at BUF 37. 56-B.Braman to BUF 37 for no gain (36-J.Meeks).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (6:24) 2-D.Carpenter 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:07) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to BUF 38, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 44%

    (1:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (9:46) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 88%

    (5:19) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:11) 8-D.Jones punts 51 yards to BUF 27, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen ran ob at BUF 41 for 14 yards (46-J.Dorenbos). PENALTY on PHI-14-R.Cooper, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 41.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:31) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to PHI 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at BUF 46 for 28 yards (6-C.Schmidt).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 49%

    (8:47) 8-D.Jones punts 32 yards to BUF 9, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:36) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to PHI 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 34 for 14 yards (65-G.Sanborn).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (3:30) 6-C.Sturgis 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 14 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:26) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to PHI 36, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 36 for no gain (81-M.Easley).