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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 8-D.Jones punts 51 yards to BUF 27, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen ran ob at BUF 41 for 14 yards (46-J.Dorenbos). PENALTY on PHI-14-R.Cooper, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model