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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 41

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 8-D.Jones punts 32 yards to BUF 9, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.55 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP