Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

(5:36) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to PHI 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 34 for 14 yards (65-G.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.34 EP
50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model