Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

(7:03) 8-D.Jones punts 63 yards to BUF 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 24 for 11 yards (37-J.Watkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.53 EP
51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model