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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to BUF 22, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen pushed ob at BUF 34 for 12 yards (56-B.Braman).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.40 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 35, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP