Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 82

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 6-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to DET 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-G.Tate ran ob at DET 43 for 22 yards (6-J.Hekker). PENALTY on DET-26-D.Carey, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.56 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 82, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model