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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
STL Home

St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 13:00 Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

DET
59.8%
STL
40.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.238 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Case Keenum (LA): -0.186 EPA/dropback in prior starts (LA starting Case Keenum in place of Nick Foles)
  • LA defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DET on 3 more days rest than LA
  • Case Keenum (LA) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
STL 20
Projected margin: DET by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DET

Calvin Johnson WR Questionable Ankle
Glover Quin S Questionable Ankle
Travis Lewis LB Questionable Ankle
Travis Swanson C Questionable Ankle
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Hamstring
Lance Moore WR Questionable Ankle
Michael Ola T Questionable Knee
Caraun Reid DT Questionable Ankle

STL

Andrew Donnal T Out Knee
T.J. McDonald S Out Shoulder
Robert Quinn DE Out Back
Janoris Jenkins CB Doubtful Concussion
William Hayes DE Probable Thigh
Johnny Hekker P Probable Not Injury Related
Zach Hocker K Probable right Thigh
Trumaine Johnson CB Probable Thigh
Case Keenum QB Probable Concussion
Lance Kendricks TE Probable Concussion
Wes Welker WR Probable Calf
Greg Zuerlein K Probable right Hip

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 14
–
STL 21

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 05:07 TD LA (5:07) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 81-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Johnson at LA 42. 22-T.Johnson for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – STL 6
  • Q3 07:39 TD DET (7:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-G.Tate for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – STL 7
  • Q3 04:02 TD LA (4:02) 30-T.Gurley left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – STL 13
  • Q4 12:25 TD LA (12:25) 30-T.Gurley right tackle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – STL 20
  • Q4 02:07 TD DET (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – STL 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (12:19) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to DET 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 15-G.Tate. PENALTY on LA-37-C.Bryant, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DET 19.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:23) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to LA 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 24%

    (7:33) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to DET 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-C.Bryant.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:15) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to LA 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Austin to LA 27 for 10 yards (10-C.Fuller).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 62%

    (13:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to DET 2, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-34-C.Reynolds. Kick touched by #37 C.Bryant.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.68 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 28%

    (8:46) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to LA 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 38-C.Davis MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 13. 38-C.Davis to LA 17 for 4 yards (50-T.Lewis). DET-59-T.Whitehead was injured during the play.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:19) 6-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to DET 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-G.Tate ran ob at DET 43 for 22 yards (6-J.Hekker). PENALTY on DET-26-D.Carey, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 25.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:10) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to LA 29, impetus ends at LA 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Austin to LA 29 for no gain (10-C.Fuller).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 16 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to DET 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-G.Tate to DET 35 for 7 yards (24-E.Patterson).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:04) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to LA 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Austin for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. DET-26-D.Carey was injured during the play. PENALTY on LA-38-C.Davis, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LA 18.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:24) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to LA 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (6:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to DET 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-53-D.Bates.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 39%

    (1:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 49, and recovers at DET 40. 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 85-E.Ebron.