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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to DET 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 15-G.Tate. PENALTY on LA-37-C.Bryant, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DET 19.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.59 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 61, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 20, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP