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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 75

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to LA 29, impetus ends at LA 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Austin to LA 29 for no gain (10-C.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model