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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 67

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to LA 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.97 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model