Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 61

Detroit Lions 7 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to LA 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-T.Austin for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. DET-26-D.Carey was injured during the play. PENALTY on LA-38-C.Davis, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LA 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.67 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model