4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to DET 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-53-D.Bates.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.66 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP