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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 46

Detroit Lions 14 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 49, and recovers at DET 40. 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 85-E.Ebron.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.25 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model