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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP