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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Thursday 2015-12-10 · 20:25 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

MIN
24.3%
ARI
75.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ARI: Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.299 vs Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.064 EPA/dropback
  • ARI offense: +0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 19
–
ARI 29
Projected margin: ARI by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

MIN

Anthony Barr LB Out Groin
Linval Joseph DT Out Foot
Harrison Smith S Out Knee
Brandon Watts LB Out Rib
Andrew Sendejo S Out Knee
Robert Blanton S Questionable Knee
Scott Crichton DE Probable Ankle

ARI

Andre Ellington RB Out Toe
Jerraud Powers CB Out Calf
Frostee Rucker DT Out Ankle
Jermaine Gresham TE Doubtful Knee
Tony Jefferson S Questionable Hamstring
Cory Redding DT Questionable Ankle
John Brown WR Probable Hamstring
Larry Fitzgerald WR Probable Ankle
Michael Floyd WR Probable Hamstring
Rashad Johnson S Probable Ankle
Mike Leach LS Probable Knee
Stepfan Taylor RB Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 20
–
ARI 23

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:28 FG ARI (7:28) 7-C.Catanzaro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. MIN 0 – ARI 3
  • Q1 04:05 TD MIN (4:05) 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – ARI 3
  • Q1 01:56 TD ARI (1:56) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep right to 12-Jo.Brown for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – ARI 9
  • Q2 00:07 FG MIN (:07) 3-B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. Penalty on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Defensive Offside, declined. MIN 10 – ARI 10
  • Q3 08:41 TD ARI (8:41) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 15-M.Floyd for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 10 – ARI 16
  • Q4 15:00 FG ARI (15:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. MIN 10 – ARI 20
  • Q4 12:15 FG MIN (12:15) 3-B.Walsh 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 13 – ARI 20
  • Q4 05:00 TD MIN (5:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 11-M.Wallace for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – ARI 20
  • Q4 01:28 FG ARI (1:28) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. MIN 20 – ARI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (7:28) 7-C.Catanzaro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (:29) 18-J.Locke punts 42 yards to ARI 28, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:35) 2-D.Butler punts 44 yards to MIN 11, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 51%

    (3:52) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:20) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to ARI 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 29 for 4 yards (95-S.Crichton).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 56%

    (3:21) 53-A.Shipley reported in as eligible. 31-D.Johnson up the middle to MIN 36 for 2 yards (54-E.Kendricks).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 61%

    (12:15) 3-B.Walsh 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (10:21) 2-D.Butler punts 49 yards to MIN 22, Center-82-M.Leach. 35-M.Sherels to ARI 45 for 33 yards (10-B.Golden). ARI-10-B.Golden was injured during the play. PENALTY on MIN-21-J.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 22.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 77%

    (1:28) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.