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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to ARI 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 29 for 4 yards (95-S.Crichton).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model