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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 53-A.Shipley reported in as eligible. 31-D.Johnson up the middle to MIN 36 for 2 yards (54-E.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.60 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model