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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 3-B.Walsh 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.22 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model