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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 2-D.Butler punts 49 yards to MIN 22, Center-82-M.Leach. 35-M.Sherels to ARI 45 for 33 yards (10-B.Golden). ARI-10-B.Golden was injured during the play. PENALTY on MIN-21-J.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP