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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 7-C.Catanzaro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.88 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 9, worth +0.76 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.67 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model