Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(13:12) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 36 yards to NO 40, Center-48-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.99 EP
54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model