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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 💨 Windy Spread 6.0 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

NO
39.8%
TB
60.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 21
–
TB 25
Projected margin: TB by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NO

Jahri Evans G Out Ankle
John Jenkins DT Out Concussion
Marques Colston WR Probable Not Injury Related
Bobby Richardson DE Probable Hamstring
Terron Armstead T Probable Knee
Delvin Breaux CB Probable Hamstring
Brandin Cooks WR Probable Concussion
Brian Dixon CB Probable Abdomen
Dannell Ellerbe LB Probable Hip
Willie Snead WR Probable Calf
Zach Strief T Probable Shoulder

TB

Jacquies Smith DE Out Hamstring
George Johnson DE Doubtful Calf
Lavonte David LB Questionable Ankle
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Hand
Jude Adjei-Barimah CB Probable Elbow
Bruce Carter LB Probable Concussion
Gosder Cherilus T Probable Knee
William Gholston DE Probable Concussion
Vincent Jackson WR Probable Knee
Logan Mankins G Probable Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 24
–
TB 17

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:41 TD NO (8:41) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 12-M.Colston for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – TB 0
  • Q2 12:01 TD NO (12:01) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 12-M.Colston for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – TB 0
  • Q2 08:11 TD TB (8:11) 64-K.Pamphile reported in as eligible. 22-D.Martin right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – TB 6
  • Q2 01:06 FG NO (1:06) (Field Goal formation) 5-K.Forbath 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 17 – TB 7
  • Q2 00:08 FG TB (:08) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. NO 17 – TB 10
  • Q3 00:58 TD NO (:58) 34-T.Hightower left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – TB 10
  • Q4 09:02 TD TB (9:02) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 11-A.Humphries for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – TB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:12) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 36 yards to NO 40, Center-48-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:27) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 43 yards to NO 33, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:33) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to TB 11, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:58) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 52 yards to NO 24, Center-48-A.DePaola. 23-M.Murphy to NO 30 for 6 yards (89-R.Shepard). PENALTY on TB-17-D.Dye, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at NO 30.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (1:06) (Field Goal formation) 5-K.Forbath 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 42%

    (11:22) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 24 yards to TB 16, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 72%

    (6:07) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:20) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 33 yards to NO 42, Center-48-A.DePaola. 31-J.Byrd to NO 43 for 1 yard (89-R.Shepard).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 14%

    (13:09) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 16%

    (10:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 87-A.Seferian-Jenkins to NO 43 for 9 yards (39-B.Browner) [32-K.Vaccaro]. PENALTY on NO-32-K.Vaccaro, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 43.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 21%

    (5:31) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:21) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 42 yards to NO 14, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.