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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 40

New Orleans Saints 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:22) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 24 yards to TB 16, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.62 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP