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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.33 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP