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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.28 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP