4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(4:21) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 42 yards to NO 14, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 56, worth -2.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model