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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to TB 11, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP