Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(1:58) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 52 yards to NO 24, Center-48-A.DePaola. 23-M.Murphy to NO 30 for 6 yards (89-R.Shepard). PENALTY on TB-17-D.Dye, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at NO 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.20 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model