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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 2-M.Nugent 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.56 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model