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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

PIT
46.8%
CIN
53.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.085 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.258 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 22
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

PIT

Sammie Coates WR Probable Illness
William Gay CB Probable Concussion
James Harrison LB Probable Not Injury Related
Heath Miller TE Probable Rib
Matt Spaeth TE Probable Knee
Sean Spence LB Probable Hamstring
Greg Warren LS Probable Not Injury Related

CIN

Jake Fisher T Doubtful Concussion
Adam Jones CB Doubtful Foot
Mario Alford WR Questionable Not Injury Related
Leon Hall CB Questionable Back
George Iloka S Questionable Groin
Clint Boling G Probable Neck
Tyler Eifert TE Probable Neck
Ryan Hewitt TE Probable Knee
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Probable Knee
Josh Shaw CB Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 33
–
CIN 20

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:28 TD PIT (9:28) 34-D.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CIN 0
  • Q2 12:38 FG PIT (12:38) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 10 – CIN 0
  • Q2 07:05 FG PIT (7:05) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 13 – CIN 0
  • Q2 06:33 TD CIN (6:33) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass deep right to 18-A.Green for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – CIN 6
  • Q2 00:27 FG PIT (:27) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 16 – CIN 7
  • Q3 14:10 TD PIT (14:10) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass short left intended for 12-M.Sanu INTERCEPTED by 22-W.Gay [92-J.Harrison] at CIN 23. 22-W.Gay for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-22-W.Gay, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty for excessive celebration to be enforced on Kick off. PIT 22 – CIN 7
  • Q3 10:14 FG CIN (10:14) 2-M.Nugent 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PIT 23 – CIN 10
  • Q4 15:00 FG PIT (15:00) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 26 – CIN 10
  • Q4 10:10 FG CIN (10:10) 2-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PIT 26 – CIN 13
  • Q4 03:53 TD PIT (3:53) 34-D.Williams right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 32 – CIN 13
  • Q4 01:07 TD CIN (1:07) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass short right to 33-R.Burkhead for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 33 – CIN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 84%

    (12:38) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 58%

    (10:50) 2-M.Nugent 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 75%

    (7:05) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 30%

    (2:33) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to CIN 2, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (1:14) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PIT 42, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 46 for 4 yards (81-T.Kroft).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 79%

    (:27) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 77%

    (10:14) 2-M.Nugent 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:13) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to CIN 27, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:13) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PIT 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 23 for -1 yards (26-J.Shaw).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (15:00) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (10:10) 2-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.