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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model