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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:27) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.15 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model