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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 2-M.Nugent 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP